ABSTRACT
U.S. container ports have experienced unpresented congestion since mid-2020. The congestion is generally attributed to import surges triggered by heavy spending on consumer goods during the COVID-19 pandemic. Port congestion has been compounded by the inability of importers to retrieve, receive, and process all the inbound goods they have ordered, resulting in supply chain shortfalls and economic disruption. How can the shipping industry and government organizations predict the end of the current surge and anticipate future surges? Expected seasonal variations in import volume are associated with peak holiday shopping periods; nonseasonal import surges are signaled by other factors. The research goes beyond transportation data sources to examine broader connections between import volume and indicators of economic and retail industry conditions. The strongest and most useful relationship appears to be between retail inventory indicators and containerized import growth. From January 2018 through July 2021, there was a relatively strong negative correlation between retail inventory- and import TEU indices with a 4-month lag (corresponding roughly to the time between import orders and -arrival). In the 2020 to 2021 pandemic period the negative correlation was stronger, again with a 4-month lag. These findings suggest that observers might anticipate import surges after marked, nonseasonal drops in retail inventories, and that import surges are likely to last until target inventory levels are restored. In a broader sense, an awareness of the linkages between consumer demand, retail chain responses, and containerized import volumes could better inform port, freight transportation, and government planning and policy choices.